Democratic Presidential Candidates Betting Odds
Election Betting Odds
Odds as of Jan 8, 2021. The ranked-choice system allows voters to rank their top-five candidates. In the event no one receives a majority of first-place votes on the first tally, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated, and those ballots are redistributed based on their second choice. In the meantime, there are some intriguing political prop bets you can get in on as well as Presidential election betting odds and Vice President candidate odds. Nancy Pelosi Odds If all Presidential votes are not counted by 11:59 A.M. On January 21, 2021, or if there is an official dispute that is hung up the judicial system, the Speaker of. Understanding Politics Betting Odds. We show Politics betting odds on the Exchange in decimals. Politics decimal odds are easy to understand, because they represent the payout you'll get if you win – e.g. 2.9 means you'll receive 29 for every £10 you bet, including your stake, if the bet wins. The 2016 United States presidential election was the 58th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016.The Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana governor Mike Pence defeated the Democratic ticket of former secretary of state Hillary Clinton and U.S. Senator from Virginia Tim Kaine.
By Maxim Lott and John Stossel
Hover over candidate pics for market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.
Odds for this page are averaged between FTX.com, Betfair and Smarkets
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10.6% -0.1% |
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25.6% |
54.0% +0.0% |
42.5% +0.0% |
3.5% |
22.4% 0.2% |
11.3% +0.0% |
10.0% +0.0% |
7.5% 0.1% |
4.8% 0.1% |
4.1% 0.1% |
3.7% -0.2% |
2.9% +0.0% |
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2.7% 0.2% |
2.5% 0.3% |
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15.8% |
By John Stossel | By Nate Silver | By Burton Malkiel | By Maajid Nawaz | By Yeonmi Park |
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About these odds and FAQ By Maxim Lott and John Stossel Odds update every minute
Copyright 2020, FTX.com
The latest 2024 presidential election odds show Vice President Kamala Harris as the front-runner over President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump at most European sportsbooks. For instance, Harris is +350 to win in 2024 at Bet365, with Biden at +400 and Trump at +600.
The thinking is that Biden may opt to let Harris take the reigns in the next Presidential election cycle, due to the fact that Biden will be 81-years-old three years from now.
The first deciding events are the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, which usually take place in February. Although the winners of these party-specific races aren’t necessarily shoe-ins for their party’s nominations, the results of these events can impact the odds greatly.
By the time Iowans and New Hampshirites gather to make their decisions, bettors in the United Kingdom and around Europe should have a good idea of who is in the running for the nominations of both parties. Despite all the historic precedent of renominating an incumbent, that isn’t a foregone conclusion for the Democrats in 2024.
Here’s a look at the current US Presidential Election odds at two UK books:
Presidential election odds 2024
| Candidate | Bet365 | Betway |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | +350 | +400 |
| Joe Biden | +400 | +400 |
| Donald Trump | +600 | +800 |
| Mike Pence | +1400 | +1600 |
| Nikki Haley | +1400 | +2000 |
| Ivanka Trump | +2500 | +3300 |
| AOC | +2500 | +3300 |
| Dwayne Johnson | +2800 | +5000 |
| Ted Cruz | +3300 | +3300 |
| Michelle Obama | +3300 | +3300 |
| Tucker Carlson | +3300 | +3300 |
| Pete Buttigieg | +4000 | +2800 |
| Liz Cheney | +5000 | OTB |
Given the recent historic turnout in Black communities in major cities around the country, Harris makes sense as the front-runner right now. It’s reasonable to assume the leaders in those communities could fire that machine back up in 2024 to get behind her.
The Democrats may want to maximize that momentum by nominating Harris instead of pushing for a second term for Biden. If they do so, that would be a first. So far in US history, no major party has ever opted not to renominate an incumbent when he’s been eligible for reelection.
That’s partially because ousting an incumbent president has proven very difficult in US history. Prior to 2020, it hadn’t happened in nearly 30 years. Here’s the full list of one-term presidents and their tenures in office:
- Donald Trump, 2017-2021
- George H.W. Bush, 1989-1993
- Jimmy Carter, 1977-1981
- Gerald Ford, 1974-77
- Herbert Hoover, 1929-33
- William Howard Taft, 1909-13
- Benjamin Harrison, 1889-93
- Martin Van Buren, 1837-41
- John Quincy Adams, 1825-29
- John Adams, 1797-1801
If the Democrats do nominate Harris in 2024, it will be historic for other reasons, however. No major party has ever nominated an African-American woman for president, for example.
Harris’ nomination could come in the same year as a historic nomination by the other party. The possible scenario has only played out one other time in US history.
Can Donald Trump run again in 2024?
The short answer is yes.
Only Grover Cleveland has served two non-consecutive terms as president in US history, serving his first from 1885-1889 and his second from 1893-1897. Despite the fact that Trump just got the second-most votes for a presidential candidate in US history, there is one big reason why he may have an uphill climb to secure a third nomination from the Republican Party.
In June of 2024, Trump will turn 78 years old. That would make him the oldest major-party presidential candidate in US history, setting him up to be pushing 83 when his potential second term would end.
By a similar measure, Trump also had more people vote for his opponent than any other incumbent in US history. That’s another reason why the GOP may look elsewhere in 2024.
UK books currently favor Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Ivanka Trump to be the GOP nominee in 2024. Either Haley or Ivanka Trump would be the first female presidential nominee in the history of the Republican Party. Ivanka Trump would also be the first daughter of a president to receive such a nomination.
Election betting explained
Often times, books will refer to markets on these contests as “futures.” That’s because they will settle the bets months or years into the future.
The lines on this event are called moneylines or straight bets. That means you’re simply picking a winner of the contest, with the margin of victory and other elements irrelevant for these purposes.
Using the 2020 presidential election as an example, UK books liked Trump as a strong contender. They started him out at +100 or “even money” then moved him to -150 throughout the cycle. His odds rounded out at +150.
That means if you put $100 down at first opportunity, you would have doubled your money exactly had he won. When his odds moved to -150, you would have had to wager $150 to make $100 in profit. At +150, you’d get a $150 payout on a wager of $100.
What to monitor: polling data
Polling data is fluid and changes over the course of an election period. In the early stages like now (May 2019), candidates with the most name recognition tend to poll the strongest. That’s why on the Democratic side former VP Joe Biden and 2016 candidate Bernie Sanders were early polling front-runners.
As lower tier candidates who have difficulty fund-raising drop out of the race, and TV debates start crystallizing (or galvanizing) voter opinion, the numbers begin to consolidate around one-to-two front-runners heading into the primaries.
For simplicity purposes, monitor two well-respected polling aggregators:
- Real Clear Politics: Consolidates and links to the most respected polls.
- FiveThirtyEight Polls: Does the same but presents the information in a different way.
Top 2024 US Presidential Contenders
Democrats
In US history, no major party has ever failed to renominate an incumbent for reelection when he’s been eligible for another term. UK books feel that the Democrats will break that tradition in 2024, however, nominating Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris instead. Other frontrunners at these books include NY Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Republicans
While Donald Trump is the frontrunner at UK books right now, current Vice President Mike Pence is the next top contender. After that, the field contains former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley and Trump’s daughter Ivanka.
Democratic Presidential Candidates Betting Odds Ncaa Basketball
2024 Presidential betting tips
Democratic Presidential Candidates Betting Odds Ncaa Football
In terms of presidential elections, the candidates who most represent the opposite end of the spectrum ideologically often fare the best. For example, Barack Obama and Donald Trump were about as different as could be.
Democratic Presidential Candidates Betting Odds College Football
That’s usually following a two-term president, however. As 2024 will come at the tail end of Joe Biden’s first term and he may run for reelection as the incumbent, that typical wisdom may prove unreliable.
Watch candidates’ fundraising and polling as the cycle nears. That will be an indicator into which candidates to back at the books.
Can you bet in the US?
Democratic Presidential Candidates Betting Odds College Bowl
So far, no states have allowed sportsbooks within their borders to take action on the results of any US elections. If that changes to any degree, TheLines will keep you updated on the progress of that movement.